Trump and Math

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the legal troubles facing former President Donald Trump and the likelihood of him facing criminal charges and potential imprisonment. It analyzes the odds of Trump being convicted and sent to prison based on the charges he is facing in multiple jurisdictions, and explores the possibility of him reaching a plea deal to avoid incarceration.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Likelihood of Trump Going to Prison

1. What are the key factors that suggest Trump may face prison time?

• Trump is facing prosecutions in at least three jurisdictions, including charges related to tax and reporting violations, mishandling of classified documents, and attempts to subvert the 2020 election.
• Federal and state prosecutors have high conviction rates, with 94% of federal felony defendants being convicted in 2021 and the Atlanta office expected to indict Trump having a 90% conviction rate.
• In cases involving mishandling of classified documents, the Department of Justice regularly obtains multi-year prison sentences.
• The compounding risk of multiple indictments significantly reduces Trump's chances of avoiding prison, with the math suggesting he has only a 41% chance of escaping prison even with favorable odds.

2. What factors could improve Trump's chances of avoiding prison?

• Trump's ability to deploy the full resources of a billionaire's legal defense and the possibility of having a pro-Trump juror who refuses to convict.
• The challenges in prosecuting each case, such as the perceived weakness of the New York case, the logistical challenges in the federal documents case, and the complexity of the election interference charges.

[02] Plea Deal Possibility

1. What factors suggest a plea deal may be the best outcome for Trump and the nation?

• A plea deal could serve the interests of both Trump and the prosecutors, with Trump potentially agreeing to a lifetime ban on serving in public office in exchange for the resolution of criminal proceedings against him.
• Imprisoning a former president could have significant knock-on effects for the nation, making a plea deal the "least bad" outcome.
• Trump's advanced age and health condition, with the author speculating that any prison sentence could be a "death sentence" for the 77-year-old.

2. What factors could make a plea deal less likely as Trump's 2024 election prospects diminish?

• As Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election decrease, his leverage for a plea deal diminishes, as his potential return to the Oval Office is the primary currency he has to offer.
• Traditional Republican leaders may be eager to see the last of Trump, and his acolytes now have their own power bases, reducing the pool of potential jurors who would refuse to convict him.