Falling fertility rates pose major challenges for the global economy, report finds

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the transformational demographic shift expected over the next 25 years due to falling fertility rates, with major implications for the global economy.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Falling Fertility Rates and Demographic Shifts

1. What are the key findings regarding falling fertility rates and demographic shifts?

• By 2050, three-quarters of countries are forecast to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female
• By 2100, just 6 countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates
• The shifting demographic landscape will have profound social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts

2. What are the implications of the declining workforce in advanced economies?

• Shrinking workforces in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention
• AI and robotics may help mitigate the economic impact, but some sectors like housing will continue to be strongly affected

3. How do fertility rate trends differ between high-income and low-income countries?

• High-income countries have seen steadily falling birth rates, while low-income countries continue to have rising birth rates
• From 2050-2100, the global total fertility rate is set to fall further from 1.83 to 1.59
• Lower-income countries are expected to see their share of new births almost double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100

[02] Geopolitical and Economic Impacts

1. What are the potential geopolitical impacts of the demographic shifts?

• The shifting demographic landscape will drive changes to international relations and the geopolitical environment
• It may also highlight new challenges in migration and global aid networks

2. How could the demographic shifts impact the global economy?

• The declining workforce in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention
• Poorer countries may be in a "stronger position" to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies as they become more exposed to climate change effects