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Falling fertility rates pose major challenges for the global economy, report finds

๐ŸŒˆ Abstract

The article discusses the transformational demographic shift expected over the next 25 years due to falling fertility rates, with major implications for the global economy.

๐Ÿ™‹ Q&A

[01] Falling Fertility Rates and Demographic Shifts

1. What are the key findings regarding falling fertility rates and demographic shifts?

  • By 2050, three-quarters of countries are forecast to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female
  • By 2100, just 6 countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates
  • The shifting demographic landscape will have profound social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts

2. What are the implications of the declining workforce in advanced economies?

  • Shrinking workforces in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention
  • AI and robotics may help mitigate the economic impact, but some sectors like housing will continue to be strongly affected

3. How do fertility rate trends differ between high-income and low-income countries?

  • High-income countries have seen steadily falling birth rates, while low-income countries continue to have rising birth rates
  • From 2050-2100, the global total fertility rate is set to fall further from 1.83 to 1.59
  • Lower-income countries are expected to see their share of new births almost double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100

[02] Geopolitical and Economic Impacts

1. What are the potential geopolitical impacts of the demographic shifts?

  • The shifting demographic landscape will drive changes to international relations and the geopolitical environment
  • It may also highlight new challenges in migration and global aid networks

2. How could the demographic shifts impact the global economy?

  • The declining workforce in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention
  • Poorer countries may be in a "stronger position" to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies as they become more exposed to climate change effects
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