Summarize by Aili
Falling fertility rates pose major challenges for the global economy, report finds
๐ Abstract
The article discusses the transformational demographic shift expected over the next 25 years due to falling fertility rates, with major implications for the global economy.
๐ Q&A
[01] Falling Fertility Rates and Demographic Shifts
1. What are the key findings regarding falling fertility rates and demographic shifts?
- By 2050, three-quarters of countries are forecast to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female
- By 2100, just 6 countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates
- The shifting demographic landscape will have profound social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts
2. What are the implications of the declining workforce in advanced economies?
- Shrinking workforces in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention
- AI and robotics may help mitigate the economic impact, but some sectors like housing will continue to be strongly affected
3. How do fertility rate trends differ between high-income and low-income countries?
- High-income countries have seen steadily falling birth rates, while low-income countries continue to have rising birth rates
- From 2050-2100, the global total fertility rate is set to fall further from 1.83 to 1.59
- Lower-income countries are expected to see their share of new births almost double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100
[02] Geopolitical and Economic Impacts
1. What are the potential geopolitical impacts of the demographic shifts?
- The shifting demographic landscape will drive changes to international relations and the geopolitical environment
- It may also highlight new challenges in migration and global aid networks
2. How could the demographic shifts impact the global economy?
- The declining workforce in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention
- Poorer countries may be in a "stronger position" to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies as they become more exposed to climate change effects
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