We Are Entering The Second Wave Of Generative AI

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the current state of AI, particularly the hype and reality surrounding ChatGPT and Generative AI. It examines the decline in interest and usage of ChatGPT, the opposing views of "AI deniers" and "superhuman evangelists," and the need to focus on concrete value rather than hype. The article also discusses the transition from the first wave of Generative AI (dazzling demos) to the second wave (products with clear intended use and concrete value), and the challenges faced by AI startups in delivering real value.

🙋 Q&A

[01] How to tell the hype from the truth

1. What are the opposing views on the value of AI?

• The article discusses two opposing views: "AI deniers" who deny the value or even the existence of AI, and "superhuman evangelists" who believe AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is around the corner and talk about the "singularity."

2. What is the author's perspective on these opposing views?

• The author, an experienced AI researcher, cannot be easily duped by the hype or denials surrounding AI. The author calls the "AI deniers" people who deny the value or existence of AI.

3. What is the author's proposed antidote to AI hype?

• The author quotes Eric Siegel's statement that "the antidote to hype is to focus on concrete value." The author emphasizes that concrete value is what matters, not dazzling demos or cool technical stunts.

[02] The transition from the first wave to the second wave of Generative AI

1. What was the nature of the first wave of Generative AI, as exemplified by ChatGPT and Sora?

• The first wave of Generative AI, exemplified by ChatGPT and Sora, was characterized by dazzling demos that wowed the public but were not actual products with specific use cases or concrete value.

2. How does the author describe the transition to the second wave of Generative AI?

• The author states that the second wave of Generative AI will consist of products with clear intended use and concrete value, rather than just generic chatbots or impressive demos.

3. What challenges do AI startups face in delivering real value with their products?

• The author explains that it is incredibly difficult to develop a product that delivers real value and is not based on hype about AI. Startups often face hurdles in validating demand, getting the interface right, and making the business model work financially.

4. What is the author's outlook on the success of AI startups in the second wave?

• The author estimates that 90% of the current Generative AI startups will likely fail, but the few that survive could make it big and provide users with very good value.