Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed.

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the global decline in fertility rates, which is happening faster and more widely than expected. It explores the demographic and economic implications of this trend, as well as government efforts to address it.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Demographic Transition and Falling Fertility Rates

1. What is the current state of global fertility rates?

• Fertility rates are falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation.
• The global fertility rate is expected to drop below the replacement level of 2.2 babies per woman, which would be the first time this has happened in human history.
• Many countries, including the U.S., China, and South Korea, have already fallen below the replacement level.

2. What are the key factors driving the decline in fertility rates?

• Urbanization and access to the internet have exposed even traditional societies to the global norm of smaller families and higher quality of life.
• Women are delaying marriage and childbirth to focus on careers and other priorities.
• The "intensity of parenting" is seen as a constraint, with parents, especially the highly educated, spending more time with fewer children.

3. How do demographers view this as a "second demographic transition"?

• Some see this as a broader societal shift towards individualism, where marriage and parenthood are less emphasized.
• This contrasts with the "first demographic transition" driven by industrialization and rising living standards.

[02] Economic and Policy Implications

1. What are the economic challenges posed by declining fertility rates?

• Shrinking workforces, slowing economic growth, and underfunded pension systems as populations age.
• Regions and communities experiencing depopulation, leading to issues like closed schools and stagnant property values.
• Difficulty financing healthcare and pensions for growing elderly populations.

2. How have governments tried to address falling fertility rates?

• Many countries have implemented pronatalist policies like parental leave, subsidized childcare, and tax benefits for families.
• However, these policies have had limited long-term success in reversing the fertility decline.
• Some political leaders, like in the U.S. and Hungary, have made raising birthrates an explicit policy goal.

3. What are the limitations and challenges of these government interventions?

• Policies may temporarily increase births, but don't necessarily lead to sustained higher fertility over a woman's lifetime.
• Immigration, a common solution, is also politically contentious in many countries.
• Demographic shifts can create vested interests, like the elderly, who are not motivated to support reforms.