China's robot makers chase Tesla to deliver humanoid workers

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses China's push into the emerging industry of building battery-powered humanoid robots, which are expected to replace human workers in assembling electric vehicles (EVs) on assembly lines. It highlights how China is leveraging its strengths in supply chain integration, mass production capabilities, and government support to drive the development of this technology, drawing from the formula behind its initial EV drive more than a decade ago.

🙋 Q&A

[01] China's Dominance in Humanoid Robots

1. What are the key factors driving China's push into the humanoid robot industry?

• Government support, such as the $1.4 billion state-backed funds for robotics in Beijing and Shanghai
• Leveraging its strengths in supply chain integration and mass production capabilities
• Drawing from the formula behind its initial EV drive, including price competition from a wide field of new entrants
• Backing from President Xi Jinping's policy of developing "new productive forces" in technology

2. How does China's approach to humanoid robots compare to Tesla's Optimus robot?

• Chinese companies are working to drive down the cost of production, aiming for sales prices under $30,000 per robot
• Tesla has an early lead in AI, but China has the ability to mass-produce at lower prices
• Tesla's Optimus robot has had a "catfish effect," spurring Chinese rivals to swim faster and develop their own humanoid robots

3. What is the current state of the humanoid robot industry in China?

• Over two dozen Chinese companies showcased humanoid robots at the World Robot Conference in Beijing
• Chinese companies are working on rapid iteration and production, with some aiming to move from prototypes to mass manufacturing by next year
• China leads the world in factory-installed production robots, with more than triple the number in North America

4. What are the challenges and limitations in the large-scale commercial application of humanoid robots?

• Experts estimate it will likely take at least 20-30 years before humanoid robots can achieve large-scale commercial application

[02] Global Humanoid Robot Market

1. What is the projected growth of the global humanoid robot market?

• Goldman Sachs forecasts the annual global market for humanoid robots will reach $38 billion by 2035, with nearly 1.4 million shipments for consumer and industrial applications
• The cost of materials to build humanoid robots has fallen to about $150,000 each in 2023, excluding research and development costs

2. How are other major players, such as UBTECH Robotics and companies outside of China, positioned in the humanoid robot market?

• UBTECH Robotics, a Hong Kong-listed company, has been testing its robots in car factories and aims to move to mass manufacturing by next year
• The current generation of production robots has been led mostly by companies outside China, including Fanuc (Japan), ABB (Switzerland), and Kuka (Germany)