Commentary: If Trump-Vance prevail in November, expect even more American isolationism

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the implications of former US President Donald Trump's selection of JD Vance as his running mate for the upcoming election. It analyzes how this choice aligns with Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) ideology and the potential impact on the election and governance.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Trump's Selection of Vance as Running Mate

1. What are the key reasons behind Trump's selection of Vance as his running mate?

• Trump's selection of Vance reinforces his MAGA ideology, including anti-trade, inward-looking, domestic manufacturing over globalism, and tougher immigration laws and deportation.
• This choice doubles down on the MAGA movement, unlike in 2016 when Trump selected Mike Pence to appeal to social conservatives and evangelicals.
• The selection of Vance, a former "Never Trumper" who is now a converted acolyte, aims to energize Trump's base.

2. How does Vance's selection impact the electoral strategy and potential outcomes?

• From an electoral college perspective, Vance's selection may help Trump in the "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but it is unlikely to sway independent voters in those states.
• Vance's selection goes against the conventional wisdom and advice from traditional Republicans to choose a running mate who can balance the MAGA ideology.
• However, Vance's selection could increase the odds of Republicans winning back control of the Senate, as it motivates Ohio Republicans to vote and attracts more outside spending to defeat the Democratic incumbent in Ohio.

3. What are the potential implications of a Trump-Vance administration on policy and governance?

• A Trump-Vance administration would likely pursue policies aligned with the MAGA agenda, such as increased tariffs, especially on goods from China, and an overhaul of the civil service, which could lead to an exodus of experienced government officials.
• Vance's opposition to US aid for Ukraine and support for imposing new tariffs on China could make the reality of Trump's previous tariff policies even more likely.
• The selection of Vance as a potential future president raises concerns about the continuation of an "America First" agenda for an extended period.

[02] Factors Influencing the Election Outcome

1. How does the election outcome depend on whether it is a referendum on Biden's first term or a choice between Trump and Biden?

• If the election is a referendum on Biden's first term, he is likely to lose given his low approval ratings, regardless of who Trump selects as his running mate.
• However, if the Biden-Harris campaign can make the election about whether Trump should be president again, they have a better chance of winning, though it remains an open question.

2. What is the significance of Vance's potential to become a future president?

• Vance's selection as Trump's running mate means he is now best positioned, along with Kamala Harris, to be a future president of the United States.
• If Trump wins in November, Vance becomes the heir apparent, which could mean 12 more years of an "America First" president, with significant global implications.