Elon Musk vows Bill Gates will be ‘obliterated’ if he doesn’t stop shorting Tesla

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the ongoing rivalry between Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, and Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft. It focuses on Musk's warning to Gates not to bet against Tesla, as Musk believes Tesla will become a $30 trillion AI colossus once it solves autonomous driving and starts mass-producing its humanoid robot, Optimus. The article also covers Tesla's recent performance, Musk's ambitious plans for the company, and the challenges in his predictions.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Musk's Warning to Gates

1. What is the nature of the rivalry between Musk and Gates?

• The rivalry between Musk and Gates became public after an exchange leaked in 2022, where Musk refused to support Gates' charitable work upon learning that Gates had a $500 million short position against Tesla.
• Musk believes that Gates' short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change, undermines the credibility of his philanthropic work on climate change.

2. What is Musk's warning to Gates regarding his short position against Tesla?

• Musk has warned that anyone still holding a short position against Tesla will be "obliterated" once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has its Optimus humanoid robot in volume production.
• Musk believes that Tesla's transformation into an AI colossus worth $30 trillion will lead to the annihilation of those who bet against the company.

[02] Tesla's Recent Performance and Musk's Ambitious Plans

1. How has Tesla's performance been in recent times?

• Tesla vehicle sales are down 6.6% through the first half of the year, and the company has struggled to meet the high expectations for its Cybertruck.
• Tesla has also abandoned its target of boosting volumes from 1.8 million EVs last year to 20 million by 2030.

2. What are Musk's ambitious plans for Tesla?

• Musk believes that once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has its Optimus humanoid robot in volume production, it will become an AI colossus worth a staggering $30 trillion.
• Musk anticipates a demand for 1 billion Optimus robots per year, with Tesla conservatively controlling a tenth of the global market. He plans to sell these robots at a price tag of $20,000 each, with a 50% profit margin, which would result in $1 trillion in annual profits.
• Musk also plans to launch a lucrative fleet of robo-taxis, which he believes will add another $5 trillion to Tesla's market cap.

3. How realistic are Musk's predictions?

• Experts argue that Musk's assumptions and predictions may be off by orders of magnitude, as the market for humanoid robots is unlikely to be as large as the smartphone market, and the price point of $20,000 per robot is much higher than the typical price of consumer goods.
• Musk's previous prediction of 20 million EV sales by 2030 was also criticized as being unrealistic, as it was based on a simplistic assumption of replacing 1% of the global installed fleet of 2 billion cars every year.