How Much Will Gaza Affect Joe Biden’s Re-election Chances?

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses whether the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza will affect President Joe Biden's chances of re-election in 2024.

🙋 Q&A

[01] How Much Will Gaza Affect Joe Biden's Re-election Chances?

1. What are the two major problems facing President Joe Biden according to the article?

• The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza
• His consistently weak poll numbers against Donald Trump

2. What do critics of Biden's approach to the Gaza war claim?

• It will cost him re-election
• He is "risking re-election for Bibi" by supporting Israel
• His political problem is on the left because of Gaza

3. What does the evidence suggest about the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Biden's electoral chances?

• The war does not appear to be driving voters away from Biden in significant numbers
• Most of the people criticizing Biden from the left for his support of Israel don't appear to be his voters anyway

4. How do the poll numbers show that Gaza is not a major electoral liability for Biden?

• Voters ranked "the Israel-Hamas war" last in importance out of ten issues
• Biden's approval rating has stayed within a narrow band with no apparent change in response to the Gaza war
• Biden's weakness with young voters is not due to Gaza, as they consider other issues more important

5. How did Biden respond to the campus protests against his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict?

• Biden defended peaceful protests but denounced violence, vandalism, and disruption of campus activities
• This stance aligns with the public's views on acceptable forms of protest

6. What is the likely impact of Biden adjusting his Middle East policy to appease his left-wing critics?

• It is unlikely to win back many voters, as those already accusing him of "genocide" likely disapproved of him for other reasons
• The electoral impact of such voters is mostly locked in, and a policy change may alienate more voters than it wins over

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