Struck

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the similarities between the 1984 UK coal miners' strike and the current writers' strike in Hollywood, highlighting how both industries are facing structural declines due to changing consumer preferences and technological disruption. It argues that the writers' strike, like the miners' strike, is unlikely to succeed in achieving its demands and will ultimately result in the weakening of the union.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Comparison between the miners' and writers' strikes

1. What are the key differences between the miners' and writers' strikes?

• The miners' strike was controversial within the union itself, with some regions refusing to participate, while the Writers Guild voted 98% in support of the strike.
• The media and Hollywood stars are more supportive of the writers' strike compared to the miners' strike.
• However, the article argues that these differences won't ultimately matter, as both industries are facing structural declines.

2. What are the similarities between the two strikes?

• Both the coal mining and entertainment industries were/are in structural decline and facing a "tsunami of alternatives" that are disrupting their traditional business models.
• The article suggests that the writers, like the miners, are "screaming at change, but progress won't listen."

[02] Decline of the entertainment industry

1. What factors are contributing to the decline of the entertainment industry?

• The rise of reality TV, live sports, and short-form video platforms like TikTok are reducing the demand for traditional scripted TV content.
• Streaming services are also putting pressure on profit margins and changing the economics of the industry, with reduced residual payments and reliance on junior writers.

2. How does the article compare the entertainment industry's situation to the coal mining industry?

• Just as the UK government seized the coal mines to keep them running due to heavy losses, the article suggests that the entertainment industry's unsustainable spending needs a "pause" to recalibrate the economics of streaming.
• The article draws a parallel between the "planned closure of dozens of mines" that prompted the miners' strike and the current challenges facing the entertainment industry.

[03] Impact of AI on the writers' strike

1. What are the writers' concerns regarding the use of AI?

• One of the sticking points in the negotiations is the writers' desire to bar the studios from using AI, as they believe their creativity is a distinctly human trait.
• However, the article argues that this request is unlikely to succeed, as AI will inevitably disrupt the industry, just as automation has disrupted other sectors.

2. How does the article suggest writers should approach the impact of AI?

• The article advises writers to "let your Netflix queue grow and play with Notion AI" while on strike, suggesting that they should focus on adapting to the changing landscape rather than trying to resist it.
• It also suggests that "someone who understands AI will" benefit, rather than the writers who refuse to embrace the technology.

[04] Outlook for the writers' strike

1. What is the article's prediction for the outcome of the writers' strike?

• The article believes the writers will exit the strike "severely impaired," just as the UK miners' union was weakened after their strike.
• It suggests that the writers will see "the light" in 6-12 months, realizing that they have "grossly miscalculated the parties involved and their relative strength."

2. What incentives does the article suggest are at play for the studios?

• The article argues that the studios need a "pause that cauterizes their unsustainable spending" on streaming content, but this would need to be a "multilateral" effort to avoid any one company gaining a competitive advantage.
• It suggests the studios may not feel a "sense of urgency to end this strike," as it provides them with an opportunity to recalibrate the economics of the industry.