Thorough Analysis of OpenAI’s New Leaked Strategy

🌈 Abstract

The article provides insights into OpenAI's strategy, which includes the development of two new model families - Strawberry and Orion. The Strawberry model is expected to have improved reasoning capabilities, while Orion is described as a more powerful model that may require the use of synthetic data generated by the Strawberry model. The article also discusses the implications of these models, including potential regulatory concerns and the challenges of achieving the desired level of AI intelligence.

🙋 Q&A

[01] OpenAI's Strategy

1. What are the two new model families that OpenAI is developing?

• The two new model families are Strawberry and Orion.
• Strawberry is a powerful LLM that can search the solution space and use verifiers to validate each thought in a thorough, step-by-step manner, but in an economically feasible way.
• Orion is a more powerful model that may require the use of synthetic data generated by the Strawberry model to achieve the desired level of AI intelligence.

2. How does the Strawberry model work?

• The Strawberry model combines research on allowing models to search and sample multiple possible solutions to increase the likelihood of finding a correct solution.
• It uses a search algorithm like Monte Carlo Tree Search, along with verifiers to validate each thought in a thorough but economically feasible way (using weaker verifiers that don't require a huge amount of compute).

3. How does the Strawberry model address the unit economics problem?

• The article suggests that OpenAI may create a mini Strawberry model through distillation, which would renounce the active search functionality but retain a considerable portion of the reasoning capabilities of the larger Strawberry model.
• By adding this new model to the ChatGPT product, it would provide an efficient-to-run model with supercharged reasoning capabilities.
• Instead of doing an active search during inference, the model would be trained through data augmentation, where it imitates a model that performs the active search, maximizing the likelihood of well-reasoned outputs without the high costs of active search.

4. What is the purpose of the Orion model?

• According to the article, Orion is the "next generation of frontier AI models" that OpenAI is working on.
• The article suggests that Orion may be GPT-5, and that to achieve the desired level of AI intelligence, available human data may not be sufficient, requiring the use of a synthetic reasoning data generator like the Strawberry model.

5. What are the potential implications of these powerful AI models?

• The article raises concerns about how society and governments might react to the release of a highly capable reasoning model like Orion.
• There are fears that it could lead to tighter regulation around future powerful AI models, as governments may perceive them as an existential threat, even though the author believes these fears are currently overblown.
• The article cautions that releasing such a powerful model without proper consideration of the implications could lead to a "fuck around and find out" situation for civilization.