Why the “AI Singularity” Will Not Happen

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the author's views on the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and the concept of the "AI singularity" - the idea that AI will surpass human intelligence and lead to exponential technological growth. The author shares their experiences of discussing disruptive technologies like decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and AI with students and conference organizers, and reflects on the challenges of making accurate predictions about the pace of technological change.

🙋 Q&A

[01] The author's views on AI and the "AI singularity"

1. What are the author's key takeaways about the impact of new technologies?

• The author believes that not every new technology will change the world, and most will barely make a dent in the status quo.
• The author is cautious about making predictions about the pace of technological change, having overestimated the speed at which disruptive technologies like DAOs would transform the corporate world.
• The author does not believe that humans will lose complete control over artificially intelligent machines, as AI primarily draws from humanity's achievements and reflects our history.

2. How has the author's perspective on AI changed over time?

• In 2017, the author suggested focusing more on AI during a presentation, but was met with skepticism, as AI was not considered a significant development at the time.
• Now, the author sees AI as a valuable companion that can assist with tedious or computationally intensive tasks, but does not believe it will surpass human intelligence in an uncontrollable or irreversible way.

3. What is the author's view on the "AI singularity"?

• The author was asked about the "AI singularity" and whether it would happen in the next few years, but the author has become more cautious about making such predictions.
• The author believes that as long as humans continue to innovate and create, we will be able to remain one step ahead of AI and retain control over our present and future reality.

[02] The author's experiences discussing disruptive technologies

1. What was the author's experience discussing decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) with students?

• The author co-taught a course on Disruptive Innovation and Regulation, where they discussed the disruptive potential of DAOs.
• The author and their colleague believed that removing managers and human mistakes from the equation could potentially resolve many of the issues seen in organizations.
• However, the author greatly overestimated the pace at which the corporate world could be changed and underestimated the strong influence of the status quo.

2. How did the author's experience discussing AI differ from discussing DAOs?

• When the author was invited to discuss disruptive innovations at conferences in 2017, everyone wanted to hear about the blockchain and smart contracts revolution, not AI.
• The author suggested focusing more on AI, but was given the "cold shoulder" as AI was seen as the "stuff of science fiction" at the time.
• Now, everyone is talking about AI, and people are curious about how it impacts and will continue to impact our lives and work.