Taiwan Is the New Berlin

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the lessons that the U.S. can learn from the Cold War's Berlin crisis to navigate the current geopolitical confrontation with China, particularly regarding the Taiwan issue.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Why Iran and Israel Stepped Back From the Brink

1. What are the key lessons the U.S. can learn from the Berlin crisis during the Cold War?

• The Berlin crisis showed how two sparring superpowers can tiptoe back from war and arrive at an uneasy détente.
• U.S. leaders like Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy managed the crisis deftly, demonstrating the importance of deterrence and convincing the other side that an escalation would have catastrophic consequences.
• The construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961 represented a turning point that reduced the threat of war, allowing the U.S. and Soviet Union to find a sustainable détente.

2. How does the Taiwan issue today compare to the Berlin crisis during the Cold War?

• Like West Berlin, Taiwan is a strategically vital territory where the U.S. competition with China risks sparking a hot conflict.
• Taiwan, like Berlin, also has powerful symbolic value and is geopolitically crucial.
• However, Taiwan is more strategically important to China than Berlin was to the Soviet Union, both symbolically and geopolitically.

3. What strategy should the U.S. pursue to manage the current geopolitical confrontation with China over Taiwan?

• The U.S. needs to adopt a muscular deterrence strategy to convince China that an invasion of Taiwan would trigger catastrophic consequences, similar to how the U.S. defended West Berlin during the Cold War.
• This would involve positioning significant military assets in the region and increasing economic leverage over China to make the costs of an invasion prohibitive.
• The goal is to create a figurative "wall" across the Taiwan Strait, making China understand that the status quo is preferable to a potentially existential conflict.

[02] U.S. Diplomacy Remains the Key to Regional Stability

1. How did the U.S. manage the Berlin crisis during the Cold War?

• The U.S. believed that preserving the balance of power in Europe was worth risking a war with the Soviets, as losing West Berlin would be seen as a major defeat.
• U.S. presidents like Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy made multiple attempts to improve relations with the Soviets, but the ongoing threat to West Berlin's status stymied these efforts.
• Only when the U.S. was able to convince Moscow that it was serious about defending the city did the Soviets blink and pull back from confrontation.

2. What are the potential consequences if China were to conquer Taiwan?

• It would rapidly reconfigure the geopolitical power structures across Asia and the Pacific, establishing a Chinese sphere of influence over the region.
• It would drastically decline the U.S.'s ability to guard trade routes, protect allies, and project power in the Western Pacific.
• Many countries in Asia and the Indo-Pacific would lose faith in the U.S.'s security guarantees and have to accommodate China as the new regional superpower.

3. How can the U.S. achieve a similar détente with China as it did with the Soviet Union during the Cold War?

• The U.S. must position significant military assets in the region and increase its economic leverage over China to convince Beijing that an invasion of Taiwan would be futile and come at a devastating cost.
• This would create a figurative "wall" across the Taiwan Strait, making China understand that the status quo is preferable to a potentially existential conflict.
• As it did during the Berlin crisis, the U.S. must walk a delicate line, investing in deterrence without triggering a full decoupling from China.