Murder rates are plummeting. What should we make of it?

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the recent decline in murder rates across over 200 cities in the United States, providing an analysis of the data and the appropriate caveats to consider.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Murder Rates Are Plummeting. What Should We Make of It?

1. What are the key facts about the decline in murder rates?

• Murder rates are down over 19% across more than 200 cities compared to a similar time frame in 2023.
• Specific cities have seen significant declines, such as New York (-18%), Washington D.C. (-21%), Baltimore (-39%), Philadelphia (-40%), Chicago (-9%), Detroit (-28%), and Cleveland (-33%).
• However, there are a few outliers, such as Los Angeles, where the rate has increased by about 6%.

2. How reliable is the data on declining murder rates?

• Tracking murders is generally more reliable than other crimes, as they are typically reported to the police and difficult to conceal.
• While police may not solve all murders, they are usually aware that a homicide has occurred.
• There are still some concerns about the accuracy of crime reporting, but the data on declining murder rates is considered fairly reliable.

3. How do the current murder rates compare to pre-COVID levels?

• If the current decline continues, the U.S. murder rate would be largely on par with or below the 2015-2019 pre-COVID levels.
• However, it is still early in the year, and the situation could potentially worsen.

4. What is the broader context around the declining murder rates?

• The article cautions against celebrating the decline, as every murder is still one too many.
• The vast majority of violent crime is perpetuated by a small group of repeat offenders, who should face proportional consequences.
• Despite the decline, polls show that most Americans still believe crime is on the rise, even when data suggests otherwise.

[02] Conclusion

The article provides a nuanced analysis of the recent decline in murder rates, acknowledging the positive trend while also highlighting the need for continued vigilance and proportional responses to violent crime.