China’s alarming rise on the seas is shifting the global order 

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the rise of China's naval power and its implications for the global balance of power, particularly in the context of the South China Sea dispute with the Philippines.

🙋 Q&A

[01] China's Naval Power

1. What is the current state of China's naval power compared to the U.S.?

• China now has more than 370 warships, including frigates, destroyers, submarines, and two aircraft carriers, surpassing the U.S. Navy's approximately 290 ships.
• China's rapid naval expansion has transformed it into a peer of the U.S. Navy, contrary to the earlier perception of China's "peaceful rise."

2. How has China's naval power grown over the past two decades?

• In the 2000s, China acquired an old Ukrainian aircraft carrier and retrofitted it, renaming it the Liaoning, which did not initially alarm Western security officials.
• However, over the past two decades, China has significantly expanded its naval capabilities, including building two additional aircraft carriers and a third one currently undergoing sea trials.
• China's naval growth has been fueled by its shipbuilding prowess, as it is now the world's largest shipbuilder, producing around 50% of the world's new ships annually.

[02] The South China Sea Dispute

1. What is the dispute between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal?

• The Scarborough Shoal is a small string of coral islands claimed by the Philippines and within its exclusive economic zone.
• China claims the shoal as part of its "nine-dash line" of control in the South China Sea, rejecting the Philippines' claims.
• In 2016, an international arbitration court ruled in favor of the Philippines, but China has not respected the ruling and has been increasingly aggressive in asserting its claims, using tactics such as aiming lasers at Philippine ships and ramming them.

2. How does the South China Sea dispute fit into China's broader strategy of controlling the region?

• The South China Sea dispute is part of China's long-term strategy to control the region and project naval power beyond its shores, fearing a conflict over Taiwan and losing sea access to the U.S. and its allies.
• China has taken over other small shoals and islands in the South China Sea, constructing military bases, and is using a mix of economic, diplomatic, and military coercion to bully smaller neighbors like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.

[03] Implications for the U.S.

1. How does China's naval power and the South China Sea dispute pose a challenge for the U.S.?

• The U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, and any attack on the Philippines could compel the U.S. to intervene, raising the risk of a conflict with China.
• The U.S. Navy's ability to project power and replace lost ships in a potential conflict with China is limited by the U.S.'s lack of shipbuilding capacity, which is far behind China's.
• The article suggests that the U.S. must urgently expand its ability to support its military to counter China's growing naval dominance in the Pacific.