Why New Tech Products Fail

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses why new tech products often fail, using the example of the Humane AI Pin as a case study. It examines the key factors that contribute to the success or failure of new technology products, such as the need for a compelling "10x use case" that matches the product's capabilities, and the importance of aligning the product's features with the current state of the underlying technology.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Why New Tech Products Fail

1. What are the key lessons from the Humane AI Pin's failure?

• The Humane AI Pin failed because it lacked a compelling "10x use case" that matched its capabilities, and the underlying technology was not yet advanced enough to deliver on the promised features.
• Successful tech products in the past, like the Apple II, Blackberry, and original iPhone, were able to provide a significantly better experience compared to the existing alternatives, despite their technical limitations.
• In contrast, products like Google Glass and Stadia failed because they did not offer a 10x improvement over the status quo.

2. What are the key factors that contribute to the success or failure of new technology products?

• The use case for the product must be very compelling, providing at least a 10x improvement over the existing alternatives.
• The product's key features must align well with the current capabilities of the underlying technology. Trying to do too much with immature technology is a recipe for failure.
• A "killer app" is not enough - the app must be so compelling that it becomes the only viable way to perform that task.

3. How could Humane have designed a more successful AI Pin product?

• Humane could have designed a wearable smartphone accessory that provides basic camera, voice control, and projector capabilities, but relies on the smartphone for the "smarts".
• This would have been a more realistic product that could be sold for around $300, rather than the $780 price tag of the current AI Pin.
• Even this more modest product would still lack a clear 10x use case, though a potential 10x use case could be a personal memory assistant that can record and recall everything the user experiences.

[02] Lessons from Successful and Failed Tech Products

1. What are the key lessons from the success of early tech products like the Apple II, Blackberry, and original iPhone?

• These products were able to provide a significantly better experience compared to the existing alternatives, despite their technical limitations.
• The "killer app" for these products (VisiCalc, email access, integrated phone/web/music) was so compelling that it became the primary reason to own the device.
• The key features of the killer app aligned well with the current capabilities of the underlying technology.

2. What are the key lessons from the failure of products like Google Glass and Stadia?

• Google Glass lacked a compelling 10x use case, as being able to get notifications or take pictures from your face was not compelling enough to justify the poor form factor.
• Stadia's only use case was identical to a PC or game console, and the marginal benefits did not make up for the latency issues and lack of a decent game library.
• These products failed to provide a significantly better experience compared to the existing alternatives.

3. What is the importance of aligning a product's features with the current state of the underlying technology?

• If a product's key features require capabilities that the underlying technology does not yet possess, the product is likely to fail, no matter how compelling the use case may be.
• Successful products in the past were able to deliver a 10x improvement using the current technology, without requiring features that were beyond the tech's capabilities at the time.