The End of Software

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses how software development will change in the future, drawing parallels to how the internet has disrupted the media industry.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Before the Internet

1. How did media behave before the internet?

• Media was expensive to create, as it required paying people to make, edit, and distribute content.
• Since content was expensive to create, it had to make money, and consumers paid for it through newspapers, magazines, books, cable, and pay-per-view.

2. How did the internet impact media companies?

• Media companies viewed the internet as a way to reach broader audiences and reduce distribution costs.
• However, the internet not only reduced distribution costs to zero, but also drove the cost of creating content to zero, leading to a proliferation of user-generated content.
• When content no longer had to make money, it led to a "Cambrian explosion" of content, with a deluge of content that consumers could not reasonably consume.

[02] Software Development

1. How is software development similar to the media industry before the internet?

• Software is expensive to create, as developers are expensive. Software has to make money, and consumers pay for it through software licenses, SaaS, and per-seat pricing.
• Software margins have historically been high, with 90+% margins and zero marginal cost of distribution.

2. How will LLMs (Large Language Models) impact software development?

• LLMs have proven to be remarkably efficient at translating human language into computer language and vice versa, which will drive the cost of creating software to zero.
• Just as user-generated content platforms disrupted media companies, software companies will be replaced by a new set of platforms that control distribution, similar to how Vogue was replaced by influencers and Salesforce may be replaced by a constellation of dynamic solutions.

3. What will happen when software no longer has to make money?

• We will experience a Cambrian explosion of software, similar to the explosion of user-generated content.
• Majoring in computer science today will be like majoring in journalism in the late 1990s, as the invisible hand of the market will correct the software industry.