Collapse Will Look Nothing Like in the Movies

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the impending collapse of modern, overdeveloped societies in the West, and how this collapse will unfold very differently from the common post-apocalyptic movie tropes. It argues that collapse is an inevitable consequence of unsustainable resource extraction and economic growth over the past centuries, and that it will be a gradual, uneven process rather than a sudden, catastrophic event.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Collapse is not a sudden, catastrophic event

1. What are the key points made about how collapse will unfold, compared to common movie depictions?

• Collapse is not an instantaneous, global event, but rather a gradual, uneven process that unfolds over years and decades
• It will not lead to massive casualties in a short timeframe, but rather a slower decline in population over time
• Collapse will not look like the ruins and chaos shown in post-apocalyptic movies, but rather a gradual deterioration of infrastructure and services
• Experts and authorities will work to maintain and restore systems, rather than a complete breakdown of civilization

2. What are the reasons given for why collapse is inevitable?

• Unsustainable resource extraction and economic growth over centuries, leading to depletion of resources and environmental damage
• Technology cannot reverse the decline in energy returns and mineral depletion, only temporarily delay it
• As complexity and energy demands increase, the system will reach a point of diminishing returns where the costs outweigh the benefits

[02] The gradual nature of collapse

1. How is the gradual nature of collapse described?

• Collapse is not a straight line downwards, but rather an uneven, bumpy ride with moments of respite or even renewed growth, followed by further downturns
• Systems will constantly try to recalibrate and restart, with experts working to maintain and restore them, but ultimately failing as the fundamentals crumble
• Decline will be unevenly distributed, with some areas and populations affected more severely than others

2. What are the key signs and effects of the gradual collapse described in the article?

• Increasing energy, resource, and transportation costs leading to challenges in maintaining agricultural output and food production
• Intermittent electricity and rolling blackouts due to shortfalls in generation and maintenance
• Shortages and rationing of goods, with the wealthy and privileged maintaining access while the general population faces declining living standards
• Declining birth rates, rising mortality, and an overall reduction in global population over the coming decades