Misunderstanding the Fertility Crisis

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the declining fertility rates in developed countries, particularly the United States, and argues that the primary driver is the high opportunity cost of having children due to increased economic opportunities and a wide array of entertainment options available. It criticizes simplistic "cultural" explanations for the fertility decline and suggests that policymakers interested in boosting fertility should focus on understanding the underlying economic factors.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Opportunity Cost and Fertility Decline

1. What is the author's main argument for the declining fertility rates? The author argues that the primary driver of declining fertility rates is the high opportunity cost of having children, due to the increased economic opportunities and wide array of entertainment options available in developed countries. He contends that this opportunity cost is the main reason why fertility rates fall as countries develop, including for both immigrants and native-born Americans.

2. How does the author explain the role of opportunity cost in fertility decisions? The author explains that as countries develop, people have more economic opportunities, higher incomes, and a vast array of entertainment options. This increases the opportunity cost of having children, as people must give up these other opportunities and activities to raise a family. The author argues that this opportunity cost is a key factor driving the decline in fertility rates.

3. What is the author's view on "cultural" explanations for the fertility decline? The author is critical of "vague cultural explanations" for the fertility decline, arguing that culture is not some "magical force" but is shaped by economics, politics, and technology. He contends that those who focus on cultural reasons for the fertility decline need to be able to point to widespread changing behaviors and explain the underlying economic and technological drivers of those changes.

[02] Policy Implications

1. What policy does the author criticize for addressing the fertility decline? The author criticizes the idea of imposing "punitive marginal tax rates on the second earner in a household" to force them out of the labor force and lower the opportunity cost of having children. He argues this would be "an awful policy with numerous bad unintended consequences."

2. What does the author suggest as a better policy approach? The author does not explicitly propose a policy solution, but suggests that policymakers interested in boosting fertility should focus on "understanding the underlying economic factors" driving the fertility decline, rather than relying on "vague cultural arguments." He implies that policies that reduce the costs and increase the support for having children may be more effective.

3. How does the author view the attempts to "shame" the DINK (dual income, no kids) lifestyle? The author argues that attempts to "shame" the DINK lifestyle through social media will fail, as the opportunity cost of having children is simply too high for most people to disapprove of that choice. He contends that the DINK video is a "cultural response to the fact that it's never been more expensive to have children when all the costs are considered."