How to Spot Real Expertise

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses how to identify valid experts and distinguish them from those who are providing misinformation. It outlines 12 signs to look for in an expert to determine if they are trustworthy.

🙋 Q&A

[01] How to Identify Valid Experts

1. What are the 12 signs to look for in an expert to determine if they are trustworthy? The 12 signs are:

• They have deep factual knowledge
• They communicate their confidence levels
• They admit when they don't know something
• They tell you to look at sources other than themselves
• They use logic and evidence
• They cite high-quality evidence
• They acknowledge the consensus view
• They are willing to change their mind in response to evidence
• They "steelman" opposing arguments by presenting the strongest version of them
• They can clearly explain their reasons for believing what they believe
• They have a track record of accurate predictions or successes
• They use multiple lenses and perspectives to analyze complex issues

2. Why is it important for experts to exhibit these traits? These traits indicate that the expert is genuinely knowledgeable, intellectually humble, and committed to truth-seeking rather than ego or rhetoric. They demonstrate the expert is providing reliable information rather than misinformation or biased views.

3. How can someone seeking to become an expert in a field apply these principles? The article suggests that someone aspiring to be an expert should ask themselves to what extent they exhibit these 12 traits. Developing these habits of intellectual humility, clear communication, and commitment to evidence can help build genuine expertise.

[02] Discerning Genuine Expertise

4. Why is discerning genuine expertise an important skill? Being able to distinguish valid experts from those providing misinformation is crucial, as there is often a mix of both on important topics. Making accurate judgments requires good critical thinking skills.

5. How can the Calibrate Your Judgment tool help improve one's ability to make accurate judgments about expertise? The article suggests trying the Calibrate Your Judgment tool, created in partnership with Open Philanthropy, as a way to improve skills at making accurate judgments about expertise and other important issues.