Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the possibility of Ukraine losing the war against Russia, as the country faces challenges such as stalling of crucial American aid, war weariness, and military setbacks. It explores the concerns and perspectives of Ukrainians, including government officials and ordinary citizens, on the potential for defeat and the need for continued support from Western allies.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Could Ukraine lose this war?

1. Questions related to the content of the section:

• What are the key factors that are raising concerns about Ukraine's ability to win the war against Russia?
• How are Ukrainians, including government officials and citizens, reacting to the possibility of defeat?
• What are the potential consequences if Ukraine were to lose the war?

Answers:

• Key factors raising concerns:
  • Stalling of crucial American aid
  • Dimming of the world spotlight
  • War weariness
  • Military setbacks and exhaustion of Ukrainian troops
  • Potential loss of territories or major cities
• Ukrainians are increasingly concerned about the possibility of defeat, but still believe they can hold out against Russia. However, there is growing anxiety and a sense of urgency for more support from Western allies.
• If Ukraine were to lose the war, it would have dire consequences not only for Ukraine, but also for the rest of Europe and the world, as it would be seen as a major threat to European security.

[02] Kyiv's Perspective on the War

1. Questions related to the content of the section:

• How is the war affecting the daily life and mood in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital city?
• What are the visible signs of the ongoing war in Kyiv, and how do they impact the city's residents?
• How are Kyiv's residents coping with the stress and uncertainty of the war?

Answers:

• Kyiv, despite its sophisticated European appearance, has an undercurrent of dread and anxiety due to the war. Visible signs include:
  • Fluttering blue-and-yellow flags commemorating fallen soldiers
  • QR codes for crowdfunding efforts to support the military
  • Camouflaged soldiers bidding farewell to loved ones at train stations
  • A display of wrecked Russian military vehicles, which now inspires more fear than pride
• Kyiv's residents are coping with the stress and sleep deprivation in various ways, such as pushing down their emotions, trying yoga or dancing, and maintaining a sense of normalcy by going about their daily lives.

[03] Challenges Facing Ukraine's Military

1. Questions related to the content of the section:

• What are the key military challenges and setbacks that Ukraine is facing?
• How is the lack of sufficient military aid and resources affecting Ukraine's ability to defend itself?
• What are the potential consequences if Ukraine's military capabilities continue to be outmatched by Russia's?

Answers:

• Key military challenges and setbacks:
  • Manpower shortages in the Ukrainian military
  • Dwindling artillery stocks and ammunition rationing
  • Inability to match Russia's firepower, with Ukrainian troops being outshot 5-to-1 and potentially 10-to-1 in the coming weeks
  • Inability to launch a major counteroffensive this year due to immediate and short-term difficulties
• The lack of sufficient military aid and resources from Western allies is severely hampering Ukraine's ability to defend itself and maintain its military momentum.
• If Ukraine's military capabilities continue to be outmatched by Russia's, it could lead to the loss of territories or even major cities, which would have devastating consequences for Ukraine and its people.

[04] The Importance of Western Aid

1. Questions related to the content of the section:

• How crucial is the continued support and aid from the United States and other Western allies for Ukraine's war effort?
• What are the concerns and frustrations expressed by Ukrainians regarding the delays and potential derailment of the $60-billion U.S. aid package?
• How are Ukraine's allies, such as the UK, trying to break the congressional logjam and ensure the delivery of the much-needed aid?

Answers:

• The continued support and aid from the U.S. and other Western allies is crucial for Ukraine's war effort, as it directly impacts the country's ability to defend itself and maintain its military capabilities.
• Ukrainians are deeply concerned and frustrated by the delays and potential derailment of the $60-billion U.S. aid package, which they see as a matter of "life and death" for their country.
• Ukraine's allies, such as the UK, are actively trying to break the congressional logjam and ensure the delivery of the much-needed aid, recognizing its importance not only for Ukraine but also for the broader European and global security interests.