Ranked: The Countries Most Exposed to Trump's U.S. Trade Policy

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the countries that would be most exposed to potential changes in U.S. trade policy under a Trump presidency. It analyzes the Trump Risk Index created by The Economist, which assesses the exposure and vulnerability of America's 70 largest trading partners to potential policy changes in the areas of trade, immigration, and security.

🙋 Q&A

[01] The Countries Most Exposed to Trump's U.S. Trade Policy

1. What are the key points about the potential changes in U.S. trade policy under a Trump presidency?

• The trade agenda under Trump would prioritize domestic manufacturing and reducing trade imbalances, including imposing a 10% tariff on all imports and deprioritizing trade pacts.
• This could pose economic risks for many of the U.S.'s largest trade partners due to their dependence on U.S. trade.

2. How was the Trump Risk Index created, and what were the key factors considered?

• The Economist created the Trump Risk Index to assess the exposure and vulnerability of America's 70 largest trading partners to potential policy changes.
• For the trade sub-index, each country was scored based on six trade indicators: bilateral trade balance, trend in bilateral trade, current-account balance, sensitive exports to the U.S., reliance on the U.S. in goods and trade, and free-trade agreements with America.

3. What are the top 10 countries with the highest trade exposure under a Trump presidency?

1. Mexico
2. China
3. Canada
4. Vietnam
5. Germany
6. Japan
7. Taiwan
8. India
9. Ireland
10. South Korea

4. Why do Mexico, China, and other countries rank highly in trade exposure?

• Mexico ranks first due to its $152 billion trade surplus with the U.S. and its significant exports of sensitive goods like automobiles, aluminum, and steel.
• China faces significant risk due to its large trade surplus and Trump's plan to impose a 60% or higher tariff on Chinese goods.
• Vietnam and India also rank highly due to their increasing role in U.S. trade and their major trade surpluses with the U.S.

[02] Learn More on the Voronoi App

1. What additional information can be found on the Voronoi app related to this topic? The article mentions that readers can check out a graphic on the Voronoi app that shows the countries that would be affected the most by a change to the status quo from a national security perspective.