Oh the Humanity

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the challenges faced by the startup Humane, which raised $230 million and spent six years developing a product called the "Ai Pin" that ultimately failed to meet expectations. The article analyzes the factors that contributed to Humane's struggles, including the venture capital mindset, the Apple-inspired approach to product development, and the dangers of nostalgia and overconfidence.

🙋 Q&A

[01] The Venture Capital Mindset

1. What is the typical investment strategy of venture capital firms?

• Venture capital firms invest in a large number of startups, with the expectation that a small percentage of those investments will be highly successful and generate outsized returns to offset the losses from the majority of investments that fail.
• They are not looking for safe bets, but rather a few "home runs" that can make up for the losses from the many investments that flop.

2. What factors do venture capital firms typically look for when evaluating investments?

• Prior success of the founders
• Potential "moats" or features that make it difficult for competitors to copy the startup
• Timing and relevance of the startup's idea to current market trends

3. How did Humane's background and pitch align with the typical venture capital investment criteria?

• One of Humane's founders, Imran Chaudhri, had worked on the original iPhone at Apple, which helped get their startup in front of venture capitalists.
• Humane pitched their product as a potential replacement for the smartphone, tapping into the growing concern around screen addiction.

[02] Startups Favor Speed

1. How did Humane's approach differ from the typical venture capital startup formula?

• Humane tried to follow Apple's approach of releasing a highly polished 1.0 product, rather than the venture capital approach of iterating quickly and getting a minimum viable product to market.
• This led to Humane spending six years developing their product in a vacuum, without the feedback and validation that could have helped them course-correct earlier.

2. What were the consequences of Humane's delayed launch?

• By the time Humane launched their product, the market need they were addressing (screen addiction) had already started to decline, with solutions like Apple's Screen Time feature gaining traction.
• Humane missed the opportunity to strike while the iron was hot and establish themselves as a leading solution in the market.

[03] The AI Pivot

1. Why did Humane pivot to focus on AI late in the development process?

• Humane needed to show progress and traction to secure additional funding, but their hardware product was struggling. Pivoting to AI allowed them to tap into the hype around that technology and present a new narrative to investors.
• However, the article suggests this pivot was likely a last-minute attempt to salvage the company, rather than a natural evolution of their original vision.

2. What are the potential consequences of Humane's AI pivot?

• The pivot may be seen as an admission that their original product concept was flawed, which could make it difficult for Humane to raise additional funding at the valuation they had previously secured.
• There is a risk of an "exodus" of employees who may lose faith in the company's direction and long-term prospects.

[04] The Hubris

1. How did Humane's overconfidence and hubris contribute to their struggles?

• Humane adopted Apple's confident, "my way or the highway" attitude without having the same leverage and momentum that Apple had built up over decades.
• Their overconfidence led them to make questionable decisions, such as a mandatory $24/month subscription and the refusal to make their product compatible with existing smartphones.

2. What lessons can be learned from Humane's hubris?

• Startups should avoid hype and overconfidence, as it can lead to self-sabotage. Humble, underdog startups that acknowledge their limitations are more likely to be forgiven for missteps.
• Trying to replicate Apple's success without the same resources and history is an unrealistic and dangerous approach for most startups.

[05] The Danger of Nostalgia

1. How did Humane's team's nostalgia for Apple's past influence their approach?

• The article suggests that Humane's team, including key figures like Ken Kocienda, were overly focused on recreating the "Apple Way" of the 2000s, rather than adapting to the current market and technological landscape.
• This nostalgia led them to make decisions, like prioritizing outdated technologies, that were out of touch with modern user needs and expectations.

2. What is the lesson about the dangers of dwelling on the past?

• The article warns that if Humane's team spent too much time dwelling on the past, they may have missed opportunities to shape the future that was right in front of them.
• The article suggests that Apple's continued success, even after the departure of key figures like Imran Chaudhri, shows that the company's best days are not necessarily behind it, and that the future is still there to be shaped.