The Silicon Valley Startup Using AI to Scour the Earth for Copper and Lithium

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses KoBold Metals, a startup that is using artificial intelligence (AI) and data-driven techniques to modernize the mining industry and locate valuable metals like copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt. The company is emerging as a player in the global rush to secure the metals needed for the transition to green energy.

🙋 Q&A

[01] KoBold Metals' Approach

1. What is KoBold Metals' approach to mineral exploration?

• KoBold uses AI and machine learning techniques to collect and analyze more sophisticated data about mineral deposits than conventional exploration methods.
• The company creates computer simulations of underground mineral deposits using various techniques like borehole drilling, laser guns, satellite imagery, and electromagnetic detection.
• KoBold's algorithms then determine the best way to drill to test the validity of its models, helping narrow down which models are most accurate.
• The company's key mottos are "Predict everything" and "Quantify the uncertainty", allowing them to quickly refine what they are looking for.

2. How does KoBold's approach differ from traditional mining companies?

• At KoBold, geoscientists and data scientists work in pairs on projects, in contrast to most traditional mining companies where geoscientists typically outnumber data scientists.
• KoBold can incorporate new data into its models and discard hypotheses in real-time, whereas traditionally this information could take months to collect and incorporate.

3. Can you provide an example of how KoBold's data-driven approach proved advantageous?

• When searching for lithium in western Québec, Canada, KoBold's initial models predicted a swath of rocks contained lithium based on satellite imagery. However, field scientists later discovered that white lichen on some of the rocks had tricked the models, leading to false positives.
• KoBold was able to quickly connect its data scientists with the field scientists to construct an updated model within days that avoided the imposter rocks. Typically, miners would collect samples and plan for field studies months or even a year later.

[02] KoBold's Test in Zambia

1. What is KoBold's biggest test so far? KoBold's approach is now facing its biggest test in Zambia, where the company is digitizing maps from state archives to help train machine-learning models about the local geology.

2. What has KoBold discovered in Zambia?

• In one area previously rejected by other miners as not economical to develop, KoBold probed deeper underground than others had looked and discovered a vast deposit of high-grade copper.
• If this Mingomba deposit comes online in the next decade, KoBold says it could produce more than 300,000 tons of copper annually, putting it among the largest copper mines in the world.

3. What are some of the challenges KoBold faces with the Zambia project?

• KoBold hasn't yet released a full study of the Mingomba asset, which sits more than a mile underground, leading to criticism and skepticism from the mining industry.
• The company says it will eventually release its data, but it hasn't yet determined the full size of the deposit.
• Building and operating a deep underground mine can be especially tricky, as seen with Rio Tinto's issues with its underground expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia.

[03] KoBold's Role as a U.S. Partner

1. How is KoBold seen as an important partner for the U.S. government?

• As one of the few larger American mining companies on the ground in sub-Saharan Africa, KoBold is seen as an important partner for the U.S. government.
• When U.S. officials were scouting for Western investors for a copper-and-cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, hoping to keep the asset out of Chinese hands, they worked with KoBold.
• KoBold conducted due diligence on the project and advised that the environmental and social impacts would be too harmful to proceed. It also found that the mine wouldn't be as productive as had been forecast.
• KoBold is continuing to work closely with the U.S. on pinpointing areas for investment, including in Congo, to secure more copper and cobalt.

2. Why is KoBold's partnership with the U.S. important?

• The energy transition requires a "tremendous amount of key materials that are not being found fast enough by the incumbent industry," according to KoBold co-founder Kurt House.
• KoBold sees itself as playing a foundational role in helping the U.S. secure the necessary copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt to power the transition to green energy.