Trump On What He’d Do With Taxes, Tariffs, Jerome Powell and More

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses Donald Trump's plans and views on economic policies if he were to be re-elected as president, including his positions on the Federal Reserve, inflation, immigration, trade, and the tech industry. It also explores how Trump's return to the White House could impact the US economy, global businesses, and international relations.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Trump's Economic Policies

1. What are Trump's key economic policies if he is re-elected?

• He would let Jerome Powell serve out his term as chair of the Federal Reserve until 2026
• He wants to lower the corporate tax rate to as low as 15%
• He no longer plans to ban TikTok
• He would consider Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase as Treasury Secretary
• He would drill more for oil and gas to help lower prices
• He would impose harsh immigration restrictions, which he believes will benefit Black and Hispanic workers by protecting their jobs and wages
• He plans to ratchet up tariffs on China and the European Union, viewing tariffs as a powerful negotiating tool

2. How do economists view Trump's economic policies?

• Mainstream economists warn that his tariff regime and protectionist trade policies would spur further inflation and amount to a tax increase for US households
• His combination of tariffs, immigration restrictions, and extended tax cuts could increase inflation and slow economic growth
• His plans to renew the 2017 tax cuts and further reduce corporate taxes do not seem to add up to a balanced budget

3. How do business leaders view a potential second Trump presidency?

• Many CEOs are privately unenthused about the prospect of Trump's return, fearing potential retaliation for past criticism
• However, some prominent CEOs have praised aspects of Trump's first term, such as the tax cuts and deregulation
• Business leaders recognize that Trump's political strength means they may need to work with him again, leading to a "shotgun remarriage"

[02] Trump's Foreign Policy and Trade

1. How would Trump approach foreign policy and trade if re-elected?

• He is cool to the idea of protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression, suggesting he may be willing to abandon the commitment to Taiwan's defense
• He is reluctant to impose sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, saying "I don't love sanctions"
• He plans to impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports from other countries, in addition to targeting China with tariffs of 60-100%
• He views trade in personal terms, believing he can negotiate better deals by directly pressuring foreign leaders

2. How would Trump's foreign policy approach impact US alliances and global relationships?

• His transactional view of foreign policy and desire to "win" every deal could rupture US alliances and commitments, such as the defense of Taiwan
• Western allies are taking measures to "America-proof" their defense and operate on the assumption that the US may have other, more urgent priorities under a second Trump administration

[03] Trump's Approach to the Tech Industry

1. How does Trump view the tech industry and social media companies?

• He has frequently attacked tech companies, accusing them of bias against conservatives and harming children, but also recognizes their importance for US competitiveness
• He wants to personally dominate US tech companies but does not want foreign competitors replacing them
• He has reversed his previous stance and now supports the cryptocurrency industry, seeing it as a way to counter China's influence

2. How have tech CEOs navigated their relationship with Trump?

• Apple CEO Tim Cook was able to persuade Trump to relent on tariffs by appealing to him directly and offering concessions
• This suggests a potential roadmap for how tech leaders might navigate a second Trump administration by building personal relationships and making strategic compromises