My Last Five Years of Work

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the potential impact of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) on employment and how people may feel and cope with the loss of work. It explores the psychological effects of unemployment, the role of shame and context in determining well-being, and how people may find meaning and happiness without traditional work.

🙋 Q&A

[01] The Potential Impact of AI on Employment

1. What are the author's key points about the impact of AI on employment?

• The author expects AI to eventually be able to do every economically useful task, first excelling at online work like copywriting, tax preparation, customer service, and software development.
• Obsolescence is unlikely to come for all types of work at the same pace - tasks involving delicate physical movements and regulated industries like medicine will be replaced more slowly.
• There may be some "nostalgic jobs" where humans are preferred even if AIs can do the job equally well, such as counselors, caretakers, and religious leaders.

2. How does the author expect the pace of improvements in robotics to compare to cognitive automation? The author notes that the pace of improvements in robotics lags significantly behind cognitive automation, improving more slowly. Tasks requiring delicate physical movements will be replaced more slowly than online/cognitive work.

3. What are the author's views on the potential economic effects of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)? The author states that the overall economic effects of AGI are difficult to forecast, and focuses on the question of how people will feel without work, rather than how they will meet their material needs. The author assumes that people's financial needs can be met through universal basic income or other transfers.

[02] The Psychological Effects of Unemployment

1. What does the research say about the relationship between unemployment and health/well-being? The research shows mixed results, with some studies finding large negative effects on mental and physical health, while others find relatively small or even negligible effects. The author notes the challenge of establishing causality, as unhealthy or mentally ill people are more likely to lose or quit their jobs.

2. How do the "shame-free" contexts of plant closures and pandemic layoffs affect the psychological outcomes of unemployment? Studies suggest that when unemployment is not seen as a personal failing but rather a shared experience, the negative psychological effects are reduced. The "shame-free" nature of these events appears to buffer against distress.

3. What does the research say about the relationship between discretionary time and well-being? One study found an inverted U-shaped relationship, where moderate amounts of discretionary time are best for subjective well-being. Too little or too much discretionary time can be detrimental, but the type of activities (social, productive, etc.) matters more than the total amount of time.

[03] Preparing for a Future Without Work

1. How does the author suggest we can prepare for a future without work? The author suggests practicing activities that we are not particularly good at, in order to learn to find joy and meaning in the doing rather than the excellence. This is akin to the approach taken by a renowned AI researcher the author knows.

2. What role does the author expect advanced AI systems to play in helping people find meaning and happiness without work? The author believes that if these AI systems can replace us in work, they should also be able to help us find solutions to the problems of unhappiness and loss of purpose that may arise from the loss of work. The author sees this as a potential way for the AI systems to assist in the transition to a post-work society.

3. What historical examples does the author provide of people finding meaning and happiness without formal work? The author cites the leisure activities of the aristocracy in the early modern era, as well as the potential parallels to retirement and the experiences of women who have historically spent more time on childcare and housework. These examples suggest that people can find fulfillment and well-being without traditional employment.