Far right leads first round of France’s parliamentary election in blow to Macron | CNN

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the results of the first round of France's parliamentary elections, in which Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party emerged as the frontrunner, leading the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble alliance. The article explores the potential implications of the RN's strong performance, including the possibility of a hung parliament and political uncertainty, as well as the strategies of various political parties to prevent the RN from winning a majority.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party

1. What were the key results of the first round of France's parliamentary elections?

• The RN party led the first round of the elections, taking 33.15% of the vote.
• The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition came second with 27.99% of the vote.
• President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble alliance came in third with 20.76% of the vote.
• The RN is projected to win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, a significant increase from its previous count of 88 seats.
• The NFP is projected to secure between 125 and 165 seats, while Ensemble is expected to trail with between 70 and 100 seats.

2. What are the potential implications of the RN's strong performance?

• The RN's success could lead to a hung parliament, as it may fall short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority.
• This could result in more political uncertainty, as Macron may have to appoint a prime minister from an opposition party, a rare arrangement known as "cohabitation."
• The RN's policies, such as refusing to send troops to help Ukraine and cutting taxes on fuel, gas, and electricity, could create a financial and constitutional crisis if implemented.

3. How have other political parties responded to the RN's performance?

• The left-wing and centrist parties have vowed to unite and withdraw candidates in certain seats to block the RN from winning a majority, a principle known as the "cordon sanitaire."
• Macron's Ensemble allies have called on their supporters to prevent the far-right from taking office, but have warned against lending their votes to the firebrand Melenchon and his France Unbowed party.
• The NFP has promised to withdraw all of its candidates who came in third place in the first round to deny the RN a majority.

[02] Potential Outcomes and Implications

1. What are the potential outcomes of the second round of voting next Sunday?

• The RN may fall short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, leading to a hung parliament and more political uncertainty.
• Macron may have to appoint a prime minister from an opposition party, a rare arrangement known as "cohabitation."
• This could lead to a clash between the president's foreign policy and the parliamentary majority's domestic policies, potentially sending France into a constitutional crisis.

2. How could the RN's policies impact France's financial situation?

• The RN has made lavish spending pledges, such as rolling back Macron's pension reforms and cutting taxes on fuel, gas, and electricity.
• These policies could cause France's budget deficit to soar, which could alarm bond markets and lead to a "Liz Truss-style financial crisis."
• France may need to embark on a period of austerity to avoid falling foul of the European Commission's new fiscal rules, which would conflict with the RN's spending plans.

3. How have the various political parties responded to the prospect of the RN winning a majority?

• The left-wing and centrist parties have vowed to unite and withdraw candidates in certain seats to block the RN from winning a majority, a principle known as the "cordon sanitaire."
• Macron's Ensemble allies have called on their supporters to prevent the far-right from taking office, but have warned against lending their votes to the firebrand Melenchon and his France Unbowed party.
• The NFP has promised to withdraw all of its candidates who came in third place in the first round to deny the RN a majority.