WEF president: 'We haven't seen this kind of debt since the Napoleonic Wars'

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the stark outlook for the global economy presented by Borge Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum (WEF). It highlights the key points raised by Brende, including:

• The global growth estimate for this year is around 3.2%, which is lower than the previous trend growth of 4% for decades.
• Global debt ratios are close to levels not seen since the 1820s, and there is a "stagflation" risk for advanced economies.
• Governments need to consider how to reduce the global debt and take the right fiscal measures without triggering a recession.
• Persistent inflationary pressures and the potential of generative artificial intelligence as an opportunity for the developing world are also mentioned.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Borge Brende's Outlook for the Global Economy

1. What is Borge Brende's outlook for the global economy?

• Borge Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum, gave a stark outlook for the global economy, saying the world faces a decade of low growth if the right economic measures are not applied.
• He warned that global debt ratios are close to levels not seen since the 1820s and there was a "stagflation" risk for advanced economies.
• He said the global growth estimate for this year is around 3.2%, which is lower than the previous trend growth of 4% for decades.

2. What are Brende's concerns about the global economy?

• Brende warned of persistent inflationary pressures and the risk of a slowdown like that seen in the 1970s in some major economies.
• He said governments need to consider how to reduce the global debt and take the right fiscal measures without triggering a recession.
• Brende also mentioned that generative artificial intelligence could be an opportunity for the developing world.

3. What does Brende say about trade and global value chains?

• Brende said, "We cannot get into a trade war, we still have to trade with each other." He explained that trade will change, and there will be some more near-shoring and friend-shoring, but we shouldn't lose the baby with the bathwater.

[02] Global Debt and Fiscal Measures

1. What is the current state of global debt?

• Brende said global debt ratios are close to levels not seen since the 1820s, and the world is getting close to 100% of global GDP in debt.
• A recent report from the International Monetary Fund noted that global public debt had edged up to 93% of GDP last year, and was still 9 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• The IMF projected that global public debt could near 100% of GDP by the end of the decade.

2. What does Brende say governments need to do regarding the global debt situation?

• Brende said governments need to consider how to reduce the global debt and take the right fiscal measures without getting into a situation where it kicks off a recession.

[03] Geopolitical Risks

1. What is Brende's view on the geopolitical risks facing the global economy?

• Brende said the biggest risk for the global economy is now "the geopolitical recession that we are faced with," highlighting recent Iran-Israel tensions.
• He warned that if Israel and Iran escalated that conflict, it could have led to an oil price of $150 overnight, which would be very damaging for the global economy.
• Brende emphasized that there is so much unpredictability in the geopolitical landscape, and it can easily get out of control.