We’re in a productivity crisis, according to 52 years of data. Things could get really bad.

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the productivity paradox - the phenomenon of a significant slowdown in productivity growth despite technological advancements. It explores the historical context of the "Great Boom" in manual worker productivity from 1870-1970, the expectations for a similar revolution in knowledge work productivity due to the computer/digital revolution, and the reasons why this expected boost in productivity has not materialized. The article also covers the backlash against productivity culture and the importance of addressing the productivity paradox for the future of society.

🙋 Q&A

[01] The "Great Boom" in Manual Worker Productivity

1. What was the "Great Boom" in manual worker productivity from 1870-1970?

• There was a 50-fold increase in the productivity of the average manual worker during this period, which was one of the most amazing and under-appreciated events in economic history.
• This led to significant changes in people's lives, such as more time with family, improved worker safety, and the rise of public education.

2. What were the expectations for a similar revolution in knowledge work productivity due to the computer/digital revolution?

• There were high expectations that the computer revolution would lead to a knowledge work revolution that could eclipse the manual worker productivity revolution.
• Predictions were made that machines would have the general intelligence of an average human being within 3-8 years, and that a 32-hour workweek would become common in the "not too distant future".

[02] The Productivity Paradox

1. What is the "productivity paradox" that occurred after the 1970s?

• Despite the rise in overall productivity, the productivity growth rate decreased significantly, a phenomenon that happened worldwide.
• At the same time, most of the productivity gains went to the top earners while the middle class stagnated, a phenomenon known as the "Great Decoupling".

2. What are some of the potential consequences of the continued stagnation in productivity growth?

• It could lead to war, generational lifestyle stagnation, currency devaluation, the rise of communism, environmental catastrophe, and stalling of innovation.

[03] The Backlash Against Productivity

1. What are some of the key reasons for the backlash against productivity?

• Productivity culture is seen as a tool used by the ruling class in the context of capitalism to extract more work from workers.
• There are concerns about the dehumanizing effects of productivity, such as burnout and the feeling that work is a moral value in itself.

2. How is the productivity paradox being hidden from public discourse?

• The narrative of constant technological progress backed by Moore's Law has overshadowed the reality of the productivity slowdown.
• Many tech-savvy, well-informed people are unaware of the productivity paradox, as it is not widely discussed.

[04] The Way Forward

1. What is the author's perspective on the way forward?

• The author argues that we should not blame productivity itself, but rather focus on addressing the root causes of the issues associated with productivity, such as inequality, burnout, and dehumanization.
• The author suggests that we need a new kind of productivity that is more inclusive, leaves us time for personal life, and provides a greater sense of purpose and fulfillment.

2. What is the "5-Hour Rule" that the author recommends?

• The "5-Hour Rule" is the practice of setting aside 5 hours per week for deliberate learning, reflection, and experimentation to develop an "improvement mindset" rather than just an "execution mindset".
• The author suggests that this can be a powerful individual-level action to address the productivity crisis.