$10 million says we won’t see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses a debate around the timeline for achieving human-superior artificial general intelligence (AGI), with Elon Musk predicting it will happen by the end of 2025, and the author Gary Marcus being skeptical of this prediction.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Elon Musk's Prediction

1. What is Elon Musk's prediction about the timeline for achieving human-superior AGI?

• Elon Musk predicts that AI will be smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year (2024), and the total amount of "sentient compute" of AI will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.

2. What is Gary Marcus' response to Musk's prediction?

• Gary Marcus does not buy Musk's predictions for the next year, and has offered a $10 million bet that we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025.

3. What is the meaning of "sentient compute" as mentioned by Musk?

• The term "sentient compute" is unclear and seems to imply compute with consciousness, but its exact meaning is not explained in the article.

[02] Bet on the AGI Timeline

1. What is the bet being proposed?

• Damion Hankejh, an investor and CEO, has offered to increase the bet to $10 million that we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025.

2. Who has accepted the bet?

• Gary Marcus has stated that he is "in" for a $50 million bet, though he notes that the money would come from VC (venture capital) cash, not his own.