What I Got Wrong About VR

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the author's changing views on the prospects of Apple's Vision Pro mixed reality headset, as well as the broader challenges facing the virtual reality (VR) market. The author acknowledges being overly optimistic about the Vision Pro's potential and now believes it will have a limited impact on Apple's revenue. The article also explores the reasons why VR devices have not gained mass consumer adoption, including the limitations of current technology, the "cold start problem" of lacking a killer app, and the author's personal concerns about the isolating nature of VR.

🙋 Q&A

[01] The author's changing views on the Vision Pro

1. Questions related to the content of the section?

• What were the author's initial predictions about the Vision Pro, and how have those views changed over time?
• What data points or information led the author to revise their opinion on the Vision Pro's potential impact?

Answers:

• The author initially made bold predictions about the Vision Pro, declaring it the "future of consumer electronics" and arguing it did not need a "killer app" to succeed. However, the author now acknowledges being wrong about the timing, as recent reports suggest the Vision Pro will sell fewer than 500,000 units in its first year.
• The author cites Bloomberg's report on the Vision Pro's projected sales as well as a comparison to the iPhone's early sales numbers to justify revising their opinion. They also note that the Vision Pro's potential revenue impact would be "inconsequential" relative to Apple's overall revenue.

[02] Reasons for the lack of mass consumer adoption of VR

1. Questions related to the content of the section?

• What are the three main reasons the author identifies for why virtual reality devices have not managed to hit expectations?
• How do these reasons indicate something about the future of technology more broadly?

Answers:

• The three main reasons are:

1. VR is not a clean break from existing technology and is reliant on the internet and network effects, making it harder for new applications to break through.
2. The science and technology are not advanced enough, forcing device makers to make significant tradeoffs in areas like weight, battery life, and screen quality.
3. The "cold start problem" where developers won't create custom apps until there is mass consumer adoption, but consumers won't buy in droves until the price-to-utility ratio is justified.

• These reasons suggest that the future of technology may be burdened by the context of existing paradigms, the challenges of scientific advancement, and the difficulty of overcoming the chicken-and-egg problem of supply and demand.

[03] The author's personal concerns about VR

1. Questions related to the content of the section?

• What are the author's personal concerns about the isolating nature of VR and how it may impact their relationship with their family?
• How does the author's changing relationship with technology more broadly factor into their perspective on VR?

Answers:

• The author expresses concern that spending too much time in VR, even enjoying activities like watching movies, would take them away from being present with their wife and future child. They feel that VR is a "visual separation from reality" and a "machine designed for selfish consumption."
• The author notes a shift in their own relationship with technology, where devices are becoming more of a "necessary utility" rather than a portal to another world. They want to be more present with their family and are wary of technologies that may isolate them from real-world connections.

[04] The author's evolving perspective on the future of VR

1. Questions related to the content of the section?

• What is the author's current view on the "positive vision" of VR, and how does it differ from their initial perspective?
• What factors or developments might lead the author to change their position on VR in the future?

Answers:

• The author no longer believes the ideal vision of VR is one where it becomes the primary way we socialize, get news, and spend our days. Instead, the author sees the positive vision of VR as a "purely utility device" used for specific purposes like work or entertainment, but then put away.
• The author acknowledges that their position may evolve, particularly if scientific breakthroughs address the current limitations of VR technology. They also note that their perspective as a soon-to-be parent may change, though their initial instinct is to limit their child's exposure to VR.