Why OpenAI may well be completely Zuck’d

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the challenges faced by OpenAI, a prominent AI company, and the broader landscape of large language models (LLMs). It covers topics such as OpenAI's financial situation, lack of a sustainable moat, and increasing competition from other players like Meta.

🙋 Q&A

[01] OpenAI's Challenges

1. What are the key challenges faced by OpenAI according to the article?

• The article suggests that OpenAI is facing several challenges:
  • Lack of long-term adoption of its technology beyond mere experimentation
  • Lack of significantly better technology compared to January 2023
  • Lack of profits, with the article citing a tentative analysis suggesting OpenAI is losing a significant amount of money
  • Lack of a sustainable moat, as customers can easily switch to other providers offering similar or even free technology

2. How does the article compare OpenAI to the WeWork of AI? The article suggests that OpenAI might someday be known as the "WeWork of AI", implying that it could face a similar downfall as the co-working company WeWork, which had a high valuation but struggled with profitability and sustainability.

3. What are the key questions the article suggests investors should ask about OpenAI? The article suggests that investors should ask tough questions about OpenAI, such as:

• What is their moat?
• What is their unique technology?
• Do they have a killer app?
• Will the tech ever be reliable?
• What is real and what is just a demo?
• What is their route to profitability when Meta is giving away similar tech for free?

[02] Broader Landscape of LLMs

1. How does the article describe the state of the LLM market? The article suggests that LLMs have become a commodity, with Meta offering a viable competitor to GPT-4 for free, which the author believes could be "fatal" for OpenAI's business model.

2. How does the article compare OpenAI's situation to that of other companies like Anthropic? The article suggests that Anthropic, as well as a number of other companies in the LLM space, face similar challenges to OpenAI and may also struggle to survive in the current market conditions.

3. What is the author's view on the predictions made by Gary Marcus regarding the LLM landscape? The article states that Gary Marcus's predictions over the last couple of years have been "astonishingly on target", implying that the author agrees with Marcus's assessments of the challenges facing companies like OpenAI.