Why we suck at estimating software projects

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the inherent difficulty in accurately estimating software projects, arguing that it is impossible to do so with any significant degree of confidence.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Impossibility of Accurate Software Estimation

1. What are the key reasons why the author believes it is impossible to accurately estimate software projects?

• Each software project is unique with its own "unknown unknowns" that cannot be fully anticipated
• Software development is a creative process, not an engineering discipline, and creative endeavors cannot be reduced to a repeatable system
• Factors like changing requirements, unexpected events, and shifting customer needs make it impossible to predict a project's timeline with accuracy

2. How does the author respond to the common attempts to improve software estimation?

• The author argues that despite countless books, conferences, and consulting efforts, the industry has not been able to solve the problem of inaccurate software estimation
• The author believes that we will never be able to accurately estimate software projects, and that we need to accept this reality rather than continuing to chase the "holy grail" of perfect estimation

3. What is the author's view on the business pressures that drive the need for accurate estimates?

• The author acknowledges that businesses and customers want definitive timelines, even if they are unrealistic
• However, the author argues that we need to find a way to accept and live with the inherent uncertainty of software development, rather than continuing to provide estimates that we know will be wrong

[02] Accepting the Limitations of Software Estimation

1. What is the author's proposed first step in addressing the problem of inaccurate software estimation?

• The author states that the first step is to accept that the problem of inaccurate software estimation will never go away, and that there may not be a solution

2. How does the author view the industry's ongoing quest for the "holy grail" of software estimation?

• The author believes that the industry will always be on this quest, but that it is ultimately futile, as we will never be able to accurately estimate software projects

3. What is the author's overall conclusion regarding the issue of software estimation?

• The author does not have a solution to the problem, and doubts that there even is a solution
• The author's main point is that we need to accept the inherent limitations of software estimation, rather than continuing to chase an unattainable goal