The Sam Altman Playbook

🌈 Abstract

The article discusses the rhetoric and tactics used by Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, to promote the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and his company's products. It highlights Altman's tendency to make bold, unsubstantiated claims about the progress and capabilities of AI, while downplaying or ignoring potential risks and criticisms.

🙋 Q&A

[01] Fear, The Denial of Uncertainties, and Hype

1. What are the key tactics Altman uses to promote his vision of AI?

• Making grand, unqualified promises about the potential of AI, such as claiming that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will be achieved without acknowledging the significant challenges and uncertainties involved
• Presenting a confident, humble, and charming persona to make his outlandish claims more palatable
• Inoculating himself against criticism by briefly acknowledging concerns but not addressing them in depth
• Feigning surprise at the existence of potential downsides or criticisms, even though he is likely aware of them

2. How does Altman's rhetoric compare to that of other tech leaders like Elon Musk?

• Altman's tactics, such as overpromising, ignoring counterarguments, and using a soft-spoken tone, are similar to those employed by other prominent tech figures like Elon Musk.
• However, Altman's approach is described as having "less panache" than Musk's.

3. What are some of the potential concerns and criticisms that Altman chooses to ignore?

• Risks associated with AI, such as job displacement, misuse for nefarious purposes, and environmental costs
• Doubts about whether AI will genuinely create the promised abundance, longevity, and other benefits
• Questions about whether Generative AI, OpenAI's specialty, will play a significant role in such advances

[02] The Sam Altman Playbook

1. What are the key elements of Altman's "playbook" for promoting his vision?

• Making wildly speculative claims about the potential of AI, without questioning the underlying assumptions
• Presenting a humble, soft-spoken persona to make his outlandish claims more palatable
• Inoculating himself against criticism by briefly acknowledging concerns but not addressing them in depth
• Feigning surprise at the existence of potential downsides or criticisms, even though he is likely aware of them
• Invoking mystical or science-fiction-like concepts to add an air of profundity to his claims

2. How does Altman's rhetoric compare to claims made about religion?

• The article draws a parallel between Altman's superlative claims about AI and the type of rhetoric used in religious discourse, as noted by Sigal Samuel.

3. What are some of the potential challenges and limitations facing Altman and OpenAI?

• Lack of major updates to GPT-4 in the past year, with competitors catching up or offering similar products at lower prices
• Potential legal challenges from copyright lawsuits, which could jeopardize the entire enterprise
• Lack of significant net profits, with a large portion of any profits having to be shared with Microsoft
• Increasing costs of training more advanced AI models, which could become prohibitively expensive
• Stagnation in user growth for ChatGPT since May 2023, without significant further growth
• Altman's acknowledgment that GPT-4 "sucks," and the company's apparent lack of a working, reliable agent or a GPT-5 level model

4. What are the potential opportunity costs of Altman's approach?

• Diverting resources from alternative, potentially more trustworthy and reliable approaches to AI
• Incurring environmental costs and distracting from better ways of using capital to help humanity